基于DSSAT CERES-Wheat 模型的未来40年冬小麦最适播期分析
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胡亚南, 梁驹, 梁社芳, 李世娟, 诸叶平, 鄂越
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Optimum Sowing Date of Winter Wheat in Next 40 Years Based on DSSAT-CERES-Wheat Model
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Yanan HU, Ju LIANG, Shefang LIANG, Shijuan LI, Yeping ZHU, Yue E
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表1 三个代表站未来2030s和2050s时段RCPs情景下全生育期长度和生育期内平均温度和总降水变化
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Tabel 1 Changes of growth period length， mean temperature and total precipitation in 2030s and 2050s under RCPs scenarios at the three stations
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| 要素 | 站点 | 2030s | 2050s |
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| RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP6.0 | RCP8.5 | RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP6.0 | RCP8.5 |
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| 温度/℃ | 定州 | 0.8~1.1 | 0.6~0.8 | 0.5~0.8 | 0.7~1.0 | 1.3~1.5 | 1.5~1.7 | 1.2~1.4 | 2.0~2.3 | | 郑州 | 0.8~1.4 | 0.5~0.7 | 0.3~0.7 | 0.5~0.8 | 1.2~1.4 | 1.3~1.5 | 1.0~1.2 | 1.5~1.9 | | 麻城 | 0.9~1.1 | 0.6~0.9 | 0.4~0.8 | 0.6~0.9 | 1.3~1.5 | 1.3~1.5 | 1.1~1.4 | 1.7~1.9 | | 降水/mm | 定州 | -32.1~ -9.2 | -32.0~-20.2 | -35.0~-20.6 | -30.8~-13.9 | -26.6~-2.4 | -26.5~-4.4 | -35.9~-24.7 | -20.7~-2.7 | | 郑州 | -24.2~-7.7 | -13.2~-0.8 | -15.9~3.3 | -24.1~-10.8 | -18.3~0.1 | -24.5~-1.5 | -26.6~-9.8 | -27.6~1.1 | | 麻城 | -9.5~41.0 | -8.9~25.8 | 24.9~85.6 | -24.2~1.4 | -31.6~14.0 | -46.1~20.3 | -49.6~-20.2 | -65.4~17.3 | | 全生育期/d | 定州 | -16~-13 | -16~-12 | -16~-12 | -17~-12 | -17~-13 | -19~-16 | -18~-15 | -19~-16 | | 郑州 | -21~-11 | -17~-11 | -16~-8 | -16~-11 | -18~-13 | -19~-15 | -18~-14 | -21~-17 | | 麻城 | -17~-11 | -18~-9 | -16~-7 | -17~-11 | -21~-16 | -21~-16 | -21~-14 | -25~-22 |
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