关键词: 电子商务, 农村, 农户生计韧性, 计划行为理论, 多时点双重差分模型, 数字能力, 数字经济

Abstract:

[Objective] As a key policy tool for empowering the development of the rural digital economy and broadening farmers' income channels, the rural e-commerce policy holds significant practical importance for strengthening farmers' risk resistance capabilities and improving sustainable livelihood levels. The purpose of this research is to systematically investigate the effects, mechanisms, and heterogeneous characteristics of the rural e-commerce policy on farmers' livelihood resilience, scientifically evaluate the policy implementation outcomes, and provide theoretical references and decision-making bases for optimizing the arrangement of rural e-commerce policies, improving the digital policy system benefiting farmers, and enhancing farmers' sustainable development capabilities. [Methods] Based on data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2012 to 2022, the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Policy was treated as a "quasi-natural experiment" and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model was employed to empirically assess the effects, mechanisms, and heterogeneity of rural e-commerce access on farmers' livelihood resilience. To solidify causal identification, a series of robustness tests and endogeneity treatments were conducted. Addressing potential biases in staggered DID estimations, a Bacon decomposition was introduced to refine the policy effect estimates. Placebo tests were utilized to rule out interference from unobservable factors and random shocks. Simultaneously, the analysis controlled for the interference of concurrent policies such as the Information Entering Villages and Households Project, the Broadband China Strategy, and the National E-commerce Demonstration Cities, and removed special samples to purify the data. To address sample selection bias, a PSM-DID model was employed for re-estimation, matching characteristics to enhance inter-group comparability. Lagged-term regressions were introduced to mitigate reverse causality issues, clarifying the temporal relationship between the policy and farmers' internet use, thereby further strengthening the rigor of the conclusions. [Results and Discussions] It was confirmed through parallel trend tests that there were no significant differences in trends between the treatment and control groups before policy implementation, satisfying the prerequisite for quasi-natural experiment identification. Placebo tests excluded interference from random factors and omitted variables, and the Bacon decomposition refined policy effect estimates, avoiding biases from heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, the analysis ruled out the confounding effects of concurrent policies and excluded specific special samples to purify the data. Addressing endogeneity concerns, the PSM-DID model mitigated sample selection bias, and lagged-term regressions dismissed potential reverse causality. Following these multi-dimensional robustness checks and endogeneity treatments, the core conclusion that the rural e-commerce policy significantly enhanced farmers' livelihood resilience remained robustly valid. Inspired by the Theory of Planned Behavior, the rural e-commerce policy influenced farmers' livelihood resilience through the synergistic effect of three core dimensions: cognitive, social, and skills. Cognitively, the policy improved rural network and logistics infrastructure, highlighted the value of the internet in production and sales, shifted farmers' traditional conservative mindsets, and strengthened positive expectations regarding e-commerce for income growth. This stimulated their intrinsic motivation to actively participate in e-commerce and diversify livelihood channels, thereby solidifying the psychological and cognitive basis for resilience enhancement. Socially, leveraging demonstration county platforms, the policy connected with industry associations and e-commerce cooperatives to conduct training and resource matching, integrating farmers into organized systems. Utilizing kinship and geographic networks, it facilitated information sharing and peer demonstration effects, building a supportive social environment and consolidating external support for risk resistance. In terms of skills, the policy provided supporting practical e-commerce training, addressing farmers' deficiencies in digital skills. It enhanced their practical abilities in online operations, customer maintenance, and logistics coordination, overcoming psychological resistance related to e-commerce operations. This empowered farmers to optimize resource allocation and flexibly respond to market risks, providing solid skill support for enhancing livelihood resilience. Heterogeneity Analysis: From an economic regional perspective, the policy's effect was significant in central and western regions but insignificant in eastern regions. Regarding policy support background, the policy effect was stronger in poverty-stricken counties and non-old revolutionary base areas. Concerning county-level logistics infrastructure, areas with better logistics conditions exhibited a more pronounced policy effect. [Conclusions] The rural e-commerce policy significantly enhanced farmers' livelihood resilience, a conclusion that holds after multi-dimensional robustness checks. Mechanism analysis verified the crucial roles of cognitive transformation, organizational embedding, and skill improvement in the policy transmission process. Heterogeneity manifests as significant regional and conditional differences in the policy effect. In the future, policy design should shift from infrastructure investment towards systemic capacity building, continuously prioritizing resources towards central and western regions and poverty-stricken counties, while simultaneously improving the county-level circulation system.

Key words: e-commerce, rural, rural households' livelihood resilience, theory of planned behavior, multi-period difference-in-differences model, digital capability, digital economy