关键词: 数字技术投入, 农业经济韧性, 投入产出表, 信息和通信技术投入

Abstract:

[Objective] Enhancing agricultural economic resilience is a critical strategic path for ensuring national food security and promoting the comprehensive implementation of rural revitalization. Against the backdrop of accelerated digital penetration in rural areas, existing research often focuses on macro-level digitalization, making it difficult to isolate the authentic contribution of digital inputs to agricultural systems. The driving effects and internal mechanisms of information and communication technology (ICT) input on agricultural economic resilience are explored in this research. Through clarifying its asymmetric impacts on resistance, recovery, and development capacities, a robust theoretical reference and empirical basis are offered for formulating differentiated digital agriculture policies that transition from traditional production modes to intelligent, resilient systems. [Methods] Based on Chinese provincial non-continuous panel data for 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2020, an advanced input-output (I-O) model framework was utilized. Leveraging the multi-regional input-output tables, the Leontief inverse matrix was employed to calculate the total consumption coefficient of the "Information Transmission, Software, and Information Technology Services" industry by the agricultural sector, which defined the total digital technology input value. Simultaneously, the entropy weight method was used to construct a comprehensive evaluation system for agricultural economic resilience. In terms of the econometric strategy, potential endogeneity was addressed by selecting the product of rural radio stations in 1988 and the previous year's Internet users as an instrumental variable (IV). The analysis was further supported by a 5% bilateral winsorization and a mediation effect model for rigorous empirical testing. [Results and Discussions] The empirical results demonstrated that digital technology input significantly enhanced overarching agricultural economic resilience. Benchmark regressions showed that the coefficient of ICT input was significantly positive at the 1% level, and the driving effect remained robust after correcting for endogeneity bias, which confirmed the core role of digital transformation in systemic risk management. Dimensional decomposition revealed a significant asymmetric characteristic: Digital technology strongly drives recovery capacity after exogenous shocks and developmental capacity during long-term evolution. However, its impact on the resistance dimension was relatively limited and exhibited a marginal negative effect. This reflected a potential technological dependence risk, where the system's increased sensitivity to power grids and network stability might weaken its original stress-resistance capacity during the onset of extreme risks. Furthermore, control variable analysis showed that per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and optimized planting structures promoted resilience, while the number of rural cooperatives exerted a negative influence, suggesting that some grassroots organizations suffered from insufficient digital adaptability. Mechanism analysis indicated that marketization, economic efficiency, and transport density were the primary transmission paths. Specifically, the marketization path contributed most significantly by reducing institutional transaction costs. Additionally, digital technology improved output efficiency through precision management and optimized transport logistics in synergy with physical infrastructure. Heterogeneity analysis showed that digital technology exhibited a clear "digital compensation" advantage in Western China, effectively offsetting natural resource endowment disadvantages. [Conclusions] This study confirms that digital input constitutes a new quality productive force that fundamentally strengthens the risk-resistance capacity of agricultural systems. The conclusions are summarized as follows: First, the empowerment of agricultural resilience by digital technology is characterized by a profound asymmetry. While it significantly improves the efficiency of systemic recovery and evolutionary development, it may simultaneously weaken original resistance due to intensified technological coupling and infrastructure dependence. Second, the reduction of institutional transaction costs through marketization is identified as the core mechanism for digital factors to exert their resilience-enhancing effects. The depth of the digital dividend is largely determined by the maturity of the market environment and its capacity for factor mobility. Third, the release of digital dividends in agriculture is heavily constrained by organizational adaptability. The lagging digital transformation and inherent structural rigidity of certain grassroots organizations have become the primary institutional bottlenecks restricting the conversion of digital technology inputs into practical systemic resilience. Ultimately, achieving a resilient agricultural economy requires a synergistic alignment between advanced digital production forces and modernized rural production relations.

Key words: digital technology input, agricultural economic resilience, input-output tables, information and communications technology input