Abstract:

[Objective] As a critical component of agricultural product supply chain management, cold chain logistics demand prediction encounters challenges such as inadequate feature extraction, high nonlinearity of data, and the propensity for algorithms to become trapped in local optima during the digital transformation process. To address these issues and enhance the accuracy of demand prediction, achieve intelligent management of the agricultural product supply chain, a combined forecasting model that integrates grey relational analysis (GRA), the wild horse optimizer (WHO), and temporal convolutional networks (TCN) is proposed in this research. [Methods] Firstly, a cold chain logistics indicator system was established for the data of Zhejiang province, China, spanning the years 2000 to 2020. This system covered four key aspects: the economic scale of agricultural products, logistics transportation, digital technology, and agricultural product supply. Then, the GRA was applied to identify relevant indicators of cold chain logistics for agricultural products in Zhejiang province, with 17 indicators selected that had a correlation degree higher than 0.75. Sliding window technology, a problem-solving approach for data structures and algorithms, suitable for reducing the time complexity of data to a better level and improving the execution efficiency of algorithms, was used to partition the selected indicators. Secondly, the TCN model was employed to extract features of different scales by stacking multiple convolutional layers. Each layer utilized different-sized convolutional kernels to capture features within different time ranges. By utilizing the dilated convolutional module of TCN, temporal and spatial relationships within economic data were effectively mined, considering the temporal characteristics of socio-economic data and logistics information in the agricultural supply chain, and exploring the temporal and spatial features of economic data. Simultaneously, the WHO algorithm was applied to optimize five hyperparameters of the TCN model, including the number of TCN layers, the number of filters, residual blocks, Dense layers, and neurons within the Dense layer. Finally, the optimized GRA-WHO-TCN model was used to extract and analyze features from highly nonlinear multidimensional economic data, ultimately facilitating the prediction of cold chain logistics demand. [Results and Discussions] For comparative analysis of the superiority of the GRA-WHO-TCN model, the 17 selected indicators were input into long short-term memory (LSTM), TCN, WHO-LSTM, and WHO-TCN models. The parameters optimized by the WHO algorithm for the TCN model were set respectively: 2 TCN layer was, 2 residual blocks, 1 dense layer, 60 filters, and 16 neurons in the dense layer. The optimized GRA-WHO-TCN temporal model can effectively extract the temporal and spatial features of multidimensional data, fully explore the implicit relationships among indicator factors, and demonstrating good fitting effects. Compared to GRA-LSTM and GRA-TCN models, the GRA-TCN model exhibited superior performance, with a lower root mean square error of 37.34 and a higher correlation coefficient of 0.91, indicating the advantage of the TCN temporal model in handling complex nonlinear data. Furthermore, the GRA-WHO-LSTM and GRA-WHO-TCN models optimized by the WHO algorithm had improved prediction accuracy and stability compared to GRA-LSTM and GRA-TCN models, illustrating that the WHO algorithm effectively optimized model parameters to enhance the effectiveness of model fitting. When compared to the GRA-WHO-LSTM model, the GRA-WHO-TCN model displayed a lower root mean square error of 11.3 and an effective correlation coefficient of 0.95, predicting cold chain logistics demand quantities in Zhejiang province for the years 2016-2020 as 29.8, 30.46, 24.87, 26.45, and 27.99 million tons, with relative errors within 0.6%, achieving a high level of prediction accuracy. This achievement showcases a high level of prediction accuracy and underscores the utility of the GRA-WHO-TCN model in forecasting complex data scenarios. [Conclusions] The proposed GRA-WHO-TCN model demonstrated superior parameter optimization capabilities and predictive accuracy compared to the GRA-LSTM and GRA-TCN models. The predicted results align well with the development of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Zhejiang province. This provides a scientific prediction foundation and practical reference value for the development of material flow and information flow in the agricultural supply chain under the digital economy context.

Key words: digital transformation, agricultural product supply chain, cold chain logistics, grey relational analysis, wild horse optimizer, temporal convolutional networks