关键词: 农业风险管理, 人工智能, 脆弱性评估, 风险预测, 损害评估

Abstract:

Agriculture is a basic industry deeply related to the national economy and people's livelihood, while it is also a weak industry. There are some problems with traditional agricultural risk management research methods, such as insufficient mining of nonlinear information, low accuracy and poor robustness. Artificial intelligence(AI) has powerful functions such as strong nonlinear fitting, end-to-end modeling, feature self-learning based on big data, which can solve the above problems well. The research progress of artificial intelligence technology in agricultural vulnerability assessment, agricultural risk prediction and agricultural damage assessment were first analyzed in this paper, and the following conclusions were obtained: 1. The feature importance assessment of AI in agricultural vulnerability assessment lacks scientific and effective verification indicators, and the application method makes it impossible to compare the advantages and disadvantages of multiple AI models. Therefore, it is suggested to use subjective and objective methods for evaluation; 2. In risk prediction, it is found that with the increase of prediction time, the prediction ability of machine learning model tends to decline. Overfitting is a common problem in risk prediction, and there are few researches on the mining of spatial information of graph data; 3. Complex agricultural production environment and varied application scenarios are important factors affecting the accuracy of damage assessment. Improving the feature extraction ability and robustness of deep learning models is a key and difficult issue to be overcome in future technological development. Then, in view of the performance improvement problem and small sample problem existing in the application process of AI technology, corresponding solutions were put forward. For the performance improvement problem, according to the user's familiarity with artificial intelligence, a variety of model comparison method, model group method and neural network structure optimization method can be used respectively to improve the performance of the model; For the problem of small samples, data augmentation, GAN (Generative Adversarial Network) and transfer learning can often be combined to increase the amount of input data of the model, enhance the robustness of the model, accelerate the training speed of the model and improve the accuracy of model recognition. Finally, the applications of AI in agricultural risk management were prospected: In the future, AI algorithm could be considered in the construction of agricultural vulnerability curve; In view of the relationship between upstream and downstream of agricultural industry chain and agriculture-related industries, the graph neural network can be used more in the future to further study the agricultural price risk prediction; In the modeling process of future damage assessment, more professional knowledge related to the assessment target can be introduced to enhance the feature learning of the target, and expanding the small sample data is also the key subject of future research.

Key words: agricultural risk management, artificial intelligence, vulnerability assessment, risk prediction, damage assessment